Wall Street kicked off the week with a quiet and mixed trading session on Monday, as market participants weighed a major double upgrade for a key Dow component against an upcoming wave of critical economic data and corporate earnings reports. While equities remained open for business, the bond market stayed closed in observance of the Columbus Day and Indigenous Peoples’ Day holidays, contributing to a relatively subdued session overall. <\/p>\n
With no major economic reports or earnings scheduled for release on Monday, attention naturally drifted toward the broader macroeconomic landscape and the start of a busy stretch of corporate financial disclosures. By the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to outperform its major peers, rising 0.4% to finish the session at 51,850. The modest advance was heavily driven by a sharp rally in Salesforce, which provided a reliable anchor for the index as investors recalibrated their outlooks on enterprise technology spending.<\/p>\n
Salesforce shares climbed 2.1% during the session following a dramatic double upgrade from BofA Securities analyst Tal Liani. In a note to clients, Liani elevated his rating on the Dow Jones stock from Underperform\u2014the equivalent of a sell\u2014straight to Buy, while simultaneously boosting his price target on the enterprise software giant from $160 to $285. Salesforce, which remains down roughly 12% for the year to date, has not traded near the $285 threshold since May 2025.<\/p>\n
Liani pointed to shifting perceptions surrounding artificial intelligence as the primary catalyst behind the revised thesis. "Our prior concern centered on AI-driven disintermediation," Liani wrote to clients, explaining that analysts had previously worried advanced artificial intelligence tools might bypass existing enterprise platforms. However, ongoing conversations with chief information officers and other key market participants revealed a different reality. Large enterprises, outstripping smaller-to-medium-sized businesses in scale and complexity, show little inclination to replace the core platforms that securely house their vital business logic, proprietary data, complex workflows, and compliance frameworks.<\/p>\n
Furthermore, Liani suggested that artificial intelligence would ultimately deepen enterprise dependence on these established platforms rather than erode them. Bolstered by what he views as a credible and execution-ready AI strategy, Liani believes Salesforce is exceptionally well-positioned to generate robust free cash flow moving forward, alleviating prior market anxieties.<\/p>\n
While the Dow Jones Industrial Average found solid footing thanks to Salesforce, the broader market indices experienced a more muted start to the week. The benchmark S&P 500 dipped a fraction of a percent, losing 0.06% to close at 7,807, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite retreated 0.4% to finish the day at 27,245. Despite the slight pullback, major indexes remain positioned near record territory. The Dow sits roughly 4.5% below its all-time high achieved in early August, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are hovering not far from the record peaks they successfully notched just last week.<\/p>\n
Monday’s quiet session happened to coincide with a significant market milestone, marking the official four-year anniversary of the current secular bull market. Over the past four years, the S&P 500 has surged approximately 118% on a price-return basis. According to Larry Adam, Chief Investment Officer at Raymond James, this performance easily surpasses the historical average gain of roughly 90% and ranks as the third-strongest bull market trajectory recorded since 1945. <\/p>\n
Along the way, the ongoing rally has produced an impressive 124 record highs\u2014more than double the historical average of roughly 50 record highs seen across the seven prior bull markets that managed to survive for at least four years. Adam noted that market volatility has remarkably remained below historical averages throughout the past four years. More importantly, he emphasized that fundamental earnings growth, rather than multiple expansion, has been the primary engine driving the bull market’s robust returns.<\/p>\n
History and current market trends suggest the ongoing expansion may still have plenty of room to run. Adam pointed out that the average bull market typically lasts about five and a half years. Historically, the fifth year of a bull market tends to average approximately 15% in annual gains and finishes in positive territory roughly 90% of the time. <\/p>\n
Even as investors celebrated the endurance of the four-year-old bull market, market strategists warned that the calm conditions observed on Monday are unlikely to persist through the rest of the week. With a heavy slate of inflation updates and macroeconomic data looming, near-term volatility could quickly return to the forefront.<\/p>\n
"This week’s inflation data could be a near-term volatility trigger," said Chris Larkin, managing director of Trading and Investing at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley. <\/p>\n
The data parade begins in earnest with the release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday morning. Headline inflation proved uncomfortably high during August, a pickup that David Payne, staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, attributed largely to lingering pressures from higher gasoline and fuel oil prices, rising shelter costs, and climbing airfares. With energy costs widely expected to remain elevated amid an unresolved geopolitical situation in the Middle East, Payne projects that the annual headline CPI rate will finish the year sitting at 4%. Meanwhile, core CPI\u2014which strips out volatile food and energy components\u2014is anticipated to settle at 2.7%.<\/p>\n
Economists at BofA Securities anticipate that September’s headline inflation figures may register higher than August’s readings due to climbing pump prices, though core inflation could show some signs of moderation as tariff-related pressures gradually ease. Nevertheless, the firm warns that an acceleration in core CPI remains a distinct possibility if airfares continue their upward trajectory. Should inflation prove stickier than anticipated, it could heighten pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider raising interest rates during its October meeting for the second consecutive time.<\/p>\n
Beyond macroeconomic data, Wall Street is turning its collective attention toward the official kickoff of the third-quarter earnings season. Market experts believe corporate financial reports will carry immense weight in determining whether equities can maintain their upward momentum heading into the final stretch of the year.<\/p>\n
"The new earnings season may play a bigger role in shaping the market’s momentum into year-end, since it may signal how strong those tailwinds really are," Larkin noted.<\/p>\n
Expectations for the third-quarter earnings season remain remarkably robust. John Butters, Senior Earnings Analyst at FactSet, points to current consensus projections indicating a remarkable year-over-year S&P 500 earnings growth rate exceeding 30%. If corporations deliver on these elevated expectations, it will mark the third consecutive quarter of positive year-over-year earnings growth for the broader market.<\/p>\n
The corporate earnings calendar picks up sharply on Tuesday morning, featuring key disclosures from prominent blue-chip corporations and major financial institutions. Among the early reporters setting the tone for the financial sector and the broader economy are healthcare titan Johnson & Johnson, which ticked up 0.9% on Monday, and banking giant JPMorgan Chase, which edged 0.4% higher ahead of its quarterly update.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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